Trading one dependency for another?
14 May 2025
Did you think the EU ended its energy dependence on Russia years ago? Not quite – but that might change now. The European Commission wants to cut the EU's remaining energy ties with Russia by 2027.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has made significant strides in reducing its dependence on Russian energy. Gas imports from Russia have fallen from 45% to 19%, while oil imports have plummeted from 27% to just 3%.
Despite the progress, the bloc still relies on Russian energy through ongoing pipeline gas deliveries, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, and residual oil shipments. In total, the EU has sent more than €200 billion to Russia for fossil fuels since 2022 – half of that for gas alone.
If the Commission gets its way, that'll all change now. Under the plan, new or short-term Russian gas contracts will be banned from 2025, and existing long-term contracts, which still account for two-thirds of Russian gas imports, must be phased out within three years.
Slovakia and Hungary, which remain heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas and have shown reluctance toward tougher sanctions, are likely to resist these measures or seek exemptions that could undermine the plan's effectiveness.
 | Olivier Reinoud The allure of cheap energy has long defined Europe's energy relationship with Moscow – and the bloc's reliance wasn't accidental. It was built over decades through infrastructure, entrenched contracts, and a preference for cheap energy. As Russian gas flows shrink, dependency quietly shifts to LNG from the US, which supplied 45% of EU imports in 2024. In doing this, the EU risks replacing Russian pipelines with American tankers. To counteract this, the EU would be well off speeding up the green transition and promoting investment in European renewable energy. |
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