The elephant in the room: Moldova's Transnistria problem

19 February 2025

If you're a state wanting to join the EU, you need a lot of things: a stable economy, a legal system aligned with EU rules, a lot of patience, and… quite logically, a unified territory. Having an unrecognised piece of land with a foreign military contingent certainly makes things very complicated – such is the case of Moldova. You probably guessed it, we're talking about the breakaway region of Transnistria – which currently hinders EU accession talks.  

Brief reminder: The region declared itself independent after a short post-Soviet war. Transnistria is unrecognised by any state and is "guarded" by 1,500 soldiers who are part of the Russian military contingent. It's self-governed, even though it relies on critical import of goods from Moldova. 

So, what's the problem? For Cypriots observing Moldova's EU path, this may feel like déjà vu. The Mediterranean island, divided between the EU-recognised Republic of Cyprus and the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Türkiye, is often cited as a precedent. Cyprus joined the EU in 2004 despite its territorial dispute, through some special clauses which made EU laws apply only to the Greek Cypriot-controlled south. 

So technically, Moldova – given all other accession criteria are met – could also join through a similar arrangement. 

According to Anastasia Pociumban, a research fellow focused on Eastern Europe at the German Council on Foreign Relations, the re-integration of Transnistria into Moldova is important and should be done in parallel with Moldova's integration into the EU. Falling short of doing so would create a region misaligned with European regulatory standards, as Pociumban told The European Correspondent.

Authorities in both Brussels and Chisinau generally prefer Moldova to reintegrate Transnistria before joining the EU. After all, since Cyprus' accession in 2004, in the past 20 years, this precedent has never been repeated. Moldova's former deputy prime minister, Alexandru Flenchea, pointed out 'that candidate countries facing similar issues, such as Serbia and North Macedonia, remain that – candidate countries’. An exception to the rule would require the political will of all Union members. 

However, that's not where the challenges end. In terms of security, a Moldova without Transnistria in the EU would create a dangerous and risky grey zone close to the Union with a strong Russian influence and military presence. But the answers to how to get those troops out are tough to come by.

This current situation offers little advantage for Transnistria either, as the region has adopted a more pragmatic stance in recent years, and its commercial success largely depends on maintaining access to the EU market. While politically aligned with Russia, Transnistria's economy is heavily reliant on trade with the EU, which accounts for more than 60% of its exports.

The breakaway region has a population of around 360,000 people, though estimates vary due to emigration. While a significant portion of the population – particularly the older generation and Russian-speaking elites – remains staunchly pro-Russian, surveys suggest that younger and business-oriented segments are more pragmatic, favouring economic stability over political alignment.

However, reintegrating Transnistria poses significant challenges for Moldova. Given that a large portion of Transnistria's population is culturally and politically oriented toward Russia, its reintegration would shift Moldova's electorate, potentially altering the country's political landscape and complicating its pro-European trajectory.