The climate cost of rearmament
11 June 2025
Europe has been really into buying bombs lately. Military spending surged by over 30% between 2021 and 2024, driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, though the Oval Office's erratic new tenant is pouring gas on the fire. Last week, NATO defence ministers agreed to raise spending targets to 5% of GDP at the upcoming summit in June.
One thing about bombs, though: besides their human and social cost, building killing machines and blowing up toxic chemicals cooks the planet and supercharges the climate crisis. To put that in perspective, Israel's war in Gaza has already emitted as much as dozens of individual countries do in a year.
Research by the Conflict and Environment Observatory estimates that a 2% defence spending increase by NATO members alone would add up to 200 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent, like adding another Pakistan, a country of 250 million people, to the map. A revised NATO spending target of 5% all but guarantees an even bigger carbon bomb.
Militaries are secretive about their operations (duh), so it's difficult to actually determine their emissions. Researchers estimate, however, that militaries produce 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, trending up as countries spend more.
And yet, militaries are almost always overlooked regarding the climate crisis; only two European states (Austria and Slovenia) have net-zero military emissions targets.
What's more, climate change itself perpetuates armed conflict, for example, over resources in the fallout of droughts, and this is just the beginning. So: more defence spending equals more climate crisis equals… more conflict.
 | Toyah Höher European countries are busting out the billions for defence faster than you can say “arms race” (looking at you, Germany). But every euro turned into a gas-guzzling tank, or jet, or literally blown up, is a euro not spent fighting climate change. No, worse – it actively fuels the crisis. We constantly hear how important military spending is for our short-term security. Yet we should still be asking ourselves much more often: at what cost to the environment, and by extension, our long-term security? |
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