Poland ・ Geopolitics

Starlink and the tech leash

17 March 2025

Drone surveillance, military encryption, facilitating access to humanitarian aid, and international outreach – since the Russian invasion in February 2022, the Starlink satellite network supplied by the US aerospace company has become the connectivity backbone of Ukraine's military and civilian communications. As of 2025, 42,000 Starlink terminals are in operation in Ukraine, about half paid for by Poland.

Elon Musk, boss of Starlink's mother company, SpaceX, recently said that Ukraine's "entire front line would collapse" without it. While US officials later said the system would not be shut down, it's still fundamentally fragile to entrust Ukraine's communications security in one person's hands. Rising tensions between Europe and the US bring into question Ukraine's ability to maintain secure access to SpaceX satellite systems.

Given the risks of excessive reliance on Starlink, Ukraine and its European allies, such as Poland, are actively seeking alternatives to mitigate the risks of excessive reliance on Starlink. For now, these include Govsatcom, an EU initiative that integrates national government satellite resources, and IRIS, a planned multi-orbit satellite internet constellation expected to be operational in 2030. Additional options involve leasing commercial satellite capacity from providers like Eutelsat, which operate geostationary satellites. 

Eutelsat's OneWeb is progressively expanding its own low-Earth-orbit network, though it still lags behind Starlink in terms of speed (200 Mbps vs. 150 Mbps), coverage (regional vs global outreach), and costs (€554 compared to €9,400 for OneWeb's terminals). Scaling Eutelsat's network for global competition will take time, with competitive operational capability expected by 2028.

European ambitions for secure, strategically independent satellite systems have long timelines, with no immediate feasible options available, making Starlink remain unmatched in its capabilities for the time being.


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