Russian fleet struggles to take off
15 December 2024
For years, Russia has been trying to kick start its airplane production programme, which now lags behind due to sanctions imposed following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The BBC reports that over the past two years, Russia has managed to build only nine planes out of the 108 it promised, highlighting its struggle to replace an ageing fleet that is deteriorating under sanctions. These restrictions have greatly impacted Russia's aircraft production, which remains heavily reliant on foreign-made components.
According to the BBC, Russia knew it would be unable to keep up with its own production plans, and the numbers the government committed to were just an "imitation of activity". Russia is trying to set up its own production of the components, but it takes time, and it's unlikely that Russia will be able to set up a production line that will be responsive to the demand. The slow production is expected to trigger a ripple effect, resulting in a shrinking air fleet that could disrupt domestic flights, transportation, and cause broader socio-economic consequences.
 | Sascha Roslyakov The Russian fleet had 850 planes in 2022, consisting of Airbus, Boeing, and SSJ-100 machines. According to some estimates, the Russian fleet is expected to shrink to 350 planes by 2026, due to the inability to service the planes because of the sanctions. Currently, more than half of the Airbus A320/321 Neo planes have been grounded in Russia. Since 2022, incidents involving Airbus, Boeing, and SSJ-100 planes in Russia have increased by 217%, yet the country continues to refuse to return Airbus and Boeing planes to their foreign lessors. To maintain the existing fleet, Russia has been trying to smuggle components from abroad, trying to circumvent sanctions. The Russian government has since urged local companies to produce domestic engines and aircraft that are less reliant on international, particularly American, components. The state-operated Rostec has begun the development of such engines and aircrafts. However, these locally produced engines are reported to be twice as expensive and have yet to undergo thorough testing. The domestically built SJ-100 aircraft is projected to enter service in 2026. As an alternative, Russia is also considering allowing Kazakh airlines to operate domestic flights – a market currently restricted by law to Russian carriers – though this option remains under review. Due to Russia's domestic flights covering vast distances, the country relies heavily on long-range aircraft to maintain connectivity. However, with its current fleet, Russia faces a growing problem. Long-range planes like Airbus and Boeing models are not widely popular globally, making spare parts scarce and easier for suppliers to control against smuggling into Russia. Experts suggest that if the Russian government is unable to find alternatives, the country may need to revive production of the IL-96 and Tu-214 – aircrafts developed before the fall of the Soviet Union. |
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