Political roulette
13 June 2024
A big gamble by the French president with little chance of paying off - that’s the consensus in French media as the country continues to grapple with an upcoming snap election at the end of the month.
Emmanuel Macron’s goal with the snap elections is to win back a majority in the Assemblée Nationale, which he lost in 2022. His strategy is a sort of "me or chaos" approach. He is daring the French to vote for Marine Le Pen’s far-right party National Rally (RN) while positioning himself as the only alternative: Macron hopes that other moderate parties will support a “republican front” against her.
But Macron needs allies. So far, he has none. On Monday, France’s left-wing parties formed an alliance. Meanwhile, the opposite side of the political spectrum is considering forming a bloc, with Le Pen reaching out to small far-right parties and the centre-right party, The Republicans. The leader of The Republicans announced on Tuesday he was ready to cooperate with the RN, effectively blowing up the cordon sanitaire in place since the 1980s and plunging his party into turmoil.
Macron’s strategy, if successful, would allow him to regain momentum and legitimacy in his last three years as president. If unsuccessful, he would be forced into a power-sharing government, a rare move known as ‘cohabitation’, where the president appoints a new prime minister from another party. Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old second in command for Le Pen, has said he’s up for the job if his party wins the elections.
The RN would then run all domestic affairs, including everything from pensions to government benefits, education, and immigration. All Macron would be able to do is observe from his seat as President, maintaining power mostly in foreign policy and the military. He would not be able to dissolve the Assemblée again for at least one year.
 | Anna Desmarais Pundits suggest that Macron might be setting a trap for the RN: drawing them into government to expose their incompetence, hoping this will undermine their appeal to voters and thwart Le Pen’s chances in the 2027 presidential election. It's a risky bet, as history has shown that the far right in power often tends to cling to it once they have it. |
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