Mark Rutte visits Portugal – ambitions face reality
04 February 2025
On Monday, January 27, the secretary-general of NATO visited Lisbon, meeting with president Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and PM Luís Montenegro to discuss the security landscape in Europe, the war in Ukraine, and the need to increase defense spending.
In Europe's westernmost country, defense spending is among the lowest in NATO, representing only 1.55% of GDP, falling short of the current 2% target and even further behind the plans advocated by Donald Trump and secretary-general Mark Rutte. Despite Luís Montenegro expressing willingness to accelerate the 2% goal (currently set for 2029), Rutte has other views, arguing that 2% is no longer sufficient for the future. He even warned that Portugal, its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) (a sea area over which a country has special rights regarding exploration and resource use), and its "fragile underwater infrastructure" are targets for Russian submarines and bombers.
Portugal's EEZ is crucial for transatlantic security. With the fifth largest EEZ in Europe – and plans to more than double its size – Portugal occupies a strategically vital position in the North Atlantic. The Azores archipelago serves as a critical transatlantic hub and a key military point, meanwhile, a significant number of undersea cables pass through Portuguese waters. In recent years, according to the Portuguese navy, the presence of Russian military and "scientific" vessels in Portuguese waters has intensified significantly, with the number of sightings tripling between 2022 and 2023.
 | Tomás Pires Although the Portuguese navy claims to closely monitor these movements, the state of the country's naval forces leaves much to be desired. Only about one-third of the combat fleet is operational, with most frigates having been in service for over 30 years. Last year, the chief of the naval staff – who is now a potential candidate for the presidency – demanded two additional submarines and more ships as a condition for remaining in his role (which he didn’t). In 2023, more than a dozen Portuguese military personnel refused to embark on a mission to monitor a Russian vessel, citing unsafe conditions on their own ship. However, the ambitions of Trump and Rutte met a pragmatic Portuguese prime minister, who argued that spending 5% of GDP is unfeasible in the short-to-medium term for many European countries, a value much higher than the 3.4% maintained by the USA. With the current state of the navy and the shortage of personnel, there is an urgent need for investment in the armed forces. However, a more pressing question remains: where will this funding come from? |
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