Hybrid threats spark action around the Baltic Sea
17 January 2025
“Sweden isn’t at war, but there isn’t peace either,” said Sweden’s prime minister Ulf Kristersson on Sunday, ahead of the Baltic Sea Nato summit in Helsinki on Tuesday, co-hosted by Finland and Estonia.
The meeting was called in the context of ever-heightening geopolitical tensions in the region, specifically triggered by Finland’s detainment of the oil tanker Eagle S. The ship is suspected of causing deliberate damage to subsea cables in the Gulf of Finland on Christmas Day.
This meeting marks a shift in the tone used by Baltic Sea leaders in responding to Russia's shadow fleet of ageing oil tankers and the various acts of sabotage. Finnish president Alexander Stubb stated at a press conference on Tuesday that “sabotage of critical underwater infrastructure must be considered as a form of hybrid influence.”
Overall, the meeting included a commitment to swift action in Baltic Sea security matters, more Nato presence in the Baltic Sea, more use of technology (including drones) to surveil the area, the creation of a legal expert group to tackle hybrid threats in the region, close cooperation between EU and Nato, and, perhaps most importantly, new framework in the form of an official Memorandum of Understanding concerning securitisation of the area. Nato secretary general Mark Rutte said the alliance would “do what it takes to ensure the safety and security of our critical infrastructure and all that we hold dear.”
 | Niina Leppilahti Just last week we wrote about the Russian shadow fleet in more detail. On Monday, a ship with an estimated 100,000 tons of oil aboard lost its ability to maneuver near the German island of Rügen and had to be towed to Skagen, Denmark’s northernmost town. Another oil tanker carrying 50,000 tons of oil was anchored in Skagen for two days this week because of engine problems. It’s these old, oil-carrying ships that have made the Swedish Armed Forces warn that Russia could use its shadow fleet to stage an environmental disaster. In the meantime, the Finnish Transport and Communications Agency warned on Tuesday about another kind of potential hybrid threat: GPS jamming. While in 2023, 200 instances of GPS disturbances that affected aviation were reported, in 2024, the figure was up to 2,800, causing some airports to adopt old-school radio navigation equipment. All three Baltic states warned about this in May last year, directly blaming Russia. |
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