'If Ukraine falls, Georgia is next' – Why Trump's chaos may mean disaster for Georgia
05 March 2025
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many Georgians believe their country's fate is intertwined with Ukraine's, as it was in the past. After the fall of the Soviet Union, both Georgia and Ukraine have always enjoyed the support of their strategic partner, the US.
Georgians had high hopes for Donald Trump's re-election, thinking his anti-China stance would be a strong counterweight to the pro-Chinese Georgian government, especially after pro-EU president Salome Zourabichvili met with him and showed up at his inauguration. But that idea crumbled fast when he hit pause on Ukraine aid, leaving many wondering what his presidency actually means for Georgia's future.
 | Mariam Tsintsadze "Ending the war in Ukraine on Russia's terms will become a verdict for Georgia," says Giorgi Khrarebava, a research fellow at Chavchavarde Center. Backed by Russia's geopolitical interests, Kharebava assumes that if Russia emerges victorious from Ukraine, it could lead to an invasion of Georgia within a year. Two regions of Georgia – Abkhazia and South Ossetia – are already occupied by the Russian Federation, and Russian forces continue to expand control through 'borderisation', moving fences and barriers to seize additional Georgian territory. If Ukraine falls and Trump remains on this political trajectory, Georgia is set to be next. Contrary to widespread opinion that Russia's next targets will include NATO members like Poland and Baltic states, Khrarebava and other geopolitical analysts see Armenia and Moldova alongside Georgia to become the victims of Russia's next act of aggression. Despite differing expert opinions, the consensus is that without American support, Georgia's security heavily depends on Ukrainians fighting for their freedom, or else a frightening 'domino effect' could happen. |
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